New poll See all›
Ipsos Harris +6 See all›Ipsos Harris +6
Who’s leading the polls?
National polling average
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Election day
30%
40%
50%
Sept. 2
46% Trump
49% Harris
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
As August winds down and the heat of campaign season begins, Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are neck-and-neck in our averages across the key swing states that will decide the election this fall, even as Harris has a small lead in most national polls. Candidates routinely get a post-convention polling bounce, and Harris has already been riding the momentum of announcing her own candidacy and her vice-presidential pick. The coming weeks will tell us if she can sustain this wave of support. Updated Aug. 23
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
As August winds down and the heat of campaign season begins, Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are neck-and-neck in our averages across the key swing states that will decide the election this fall, even as Harris has a small lead in most national polls. Candidates routinely get a post-convention polling bounce, and Harris has already been riding the momentum of announcing her own candidacy and her vice-presidential pick. The coming weeks will tell us if she can sustain this wave of support. Updated Aug. 23
The latest Harris vs. Trump polls
Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from “select pollsters,” which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more. You can filter by state, toggle to show only select pollsters, and choose head-to-head or three-way matchups.
Loading...
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
Polls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.
From Biden to Harris
This chart shows how the polling margin has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump.
R+6
R+3
Even
D+3
D+6
May 30 Trump convicted
June 27 Debate
July 21 Biden leaves race
Aug. 19 Democratic convention
Biden vs. Trump +3 Trump
Harris vs. Trump +3 Harris
Albert SunGraphics reporter
President Biden’s poor debate performance in June shook up a race that had been relatively stable in the polls. After the debate and the assassination attempt against Trump, the national polling average widened to Trump +3 before Biden announced he would leave the race. As Harris has consolidated support among Democrats, polls have shown her gaining ground.
Note: This page previously showed polls of the matchup between Biden and Trump. The data below is archived as of July 21.
Archived
Biden trailed Trump in the polls
National polling average
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Election day
30%
40%
50%
July 21
44% Biden
47% Trump
William P. DavisDirector, Election Data Analytics
Biden had trailed Trump in the national polling average almost every day this year, and he had also faced a deficit in the states needed to reach 270 electoral votes. After June’s presidential debate, the gap widened, and as Biden ended his campaign, polls found him down three points nationally and four or more points in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. These averages are now archived.
William P. DavisDirector, Election Data Analytics
Biden had trailed Trump in the national polling average almost every day this year, and he had also faced a deficit in the states needed to reach 270 electoral votes. After June’s presidential debate, the gap widened, and as Biden ended his campaign, polls found him down three points nationally and four or more points in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. These averages are now archived.
Archived
How the averages changed
Arrows to the left indicate polling gains for Biden; to the right, for Trump.
| July 21 margin | polls | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | Trump +3 | 62 | |
| Minn. | Biden +4 | 0 | |
| Va. | Biden +1 | 5 | |
| Wis. | Trump +4 | 9 | |
| Pa. | Trump +5 | 11 | |
| Mich. | Trump +5 | 8 | |
| N.C. | Trump +6 | 4 | |
| Ariz. | Trump +7 | 7 | |
| Ga. | Trump +7 | 7 | |
| Nev. | Trump +7 | 6 |
Albert SunGraphics reporter
In the weeks after the debate, Biden’s position deteriorated in three states crucial to his re-election — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — as well as in other swing states where he had already been trailing by four to five points.
Archived
Explore Electoral College scenarios
In the Biden vs. Trump matchup, both candidates had states they could count on, but they needed more to get to 270 electoral votes. There were nine key states in the middle where the vote was close in 2020 or polling was close this year.
Biden 226
Trump 312
10
Minn.
+4
13
Va.
+1
10
Wis.
+4
19
Pa.
+5
15
Mich.
+5
16
N.C.
+6
11
Ariz.
+7
16
Ga.
+7
6
Nev.
+7
270
If the polls had changed, or missed, in Biden’s favor
Biden had a path: He trailed in key states, but a shift or polling miss in his favor would not have been impossible, though of course it was not guaranteed.
Biden 270
Trump 268
10
Minn.
13
Va.
10
Wis.
19
Pa.
15
Mich.
16
N.C.
11
Ariz.
16
Ga.
6
Nev.
270
Biden was within 5 points of the lead in these states.
Albert SunGraphics reporter
Biden’s path to the presidency narrowed as his standing in the swing-state polls dropped, most likely a factor in his decision to drop out of the race.
Archived
How wrong might the polls be?
It’s normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the final Biden vs. Trump polling averages.
| Biggestrecent polling miss | ||
|---|---|---|
| Minn. | 6 pts.(2016) | Range of polling miss |
| Va. | 3 pts.(2012) | |
| Wis. | 9 pts.(2020) | |
| Pa. | 5 pts.(2022) | |
| Mich. | 6 pts.(2022) | |
| N.C. | 6 pts.(2016) | |
| Ariz. | 3 pts.(2022) | |
| Ga. | 2 pts.(2016) | |
| Nev. | 4 pts.(2012) |
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
In 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Trump. But in 2012 they underestimated the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and in 2022 Democrats outperformed polling averages in several key midterm races. Past polling misses can give a sense of the magnitude by which current averages could be wrong, but they are not a guarantee of which way today’s polls may be off.
Archived
All Biden vs. Trump polls
Loading...
Nate CohnChief political analyst
Before bowing out of the race, Biden had been trailing Trump in the polls for essentially 10 straight months.
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Andrew Park, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.
